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The international system is undergoing profound change and transformation. Crises are triggering one another and becoming increasingly globalized. Global and regional competition is deepening, and uncertainties are growing day by day. We are in a period of global anxiety. While traditional elements of international politics reassert themselves, we are moving toward a new but much more challenging era. The traditional geopolitical struggle based on territorial expansion is once again shaping international politics, and we are entering a hybrid era where information production doubles every six months and artificial intelligence sets the agenda daily. As Antonio Gramsci aptly put it 100 years ago, we are in a period where “the old is dying and the new cannot be born.”
In such a period, predicting the future is extremely challenging. Nevertheless, we must contemplate what tomorrow’s world might look like. To cope with today’s challenges, we must study and anticipate tomorrow. “SETA Security RADAR: Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2024” serves precisely this purpose. It aims to predict how current dynamics will shape Türkish foreign, security and defense policies.
In 2023, the international system experienced many unexpected events and strategic shifts. The coming year could bring more profound changes. Important elections in countries like the U.S., Russia, India, the U.K., Taiwan and Bangladesh could significantly affect global dynamics and lead to geopolitical changes. Given that half of the world’s population, or 4 billion people, will vote in these countries, these countries’ scale and demographic weight, along with their positions in existing international/geopolitical polarization and potential shifts based on election outcomes, make these elections particularly significant. These could increase geopolitical tensions and deepen the uncertainty in the system.
Conflicts beyond regions
In 2023, the Ukrainian war, the Taiwan conflict, Iran’s nuclear program and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict were among the main determinants of international dynamics, affecting countries both within and outside the region.
The spheres of influence and capabilities of global powers are increasingly being questioned. It is difficult to predict when the global system will reach a stable equilibrium. The challenges to the U.S.’ global position and China’s growing power signify potential global power competition and regional dynamic shifts. Currently, China is challenging the U.S.’ hegemonic position regionally, but it is still far from balancing the U.S. militarily. Ongoing conflicts like the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Yemen crisis are fueling global uncertainty with unpredictable outcomes.
The Ukraine war is characterized by a military stalemate. There’s a mismatch between the operational tempo at the military level on the ground and the geographical geometry, meaning neither side is winning or losing the war. For Ukraine to gain a game-changing advantage and break the deadlock, the approval of financial and defense aid, currently blocked in the U.S. Congress, is crucial. Failure or partial realization of this will not be enough to change the military status quo, which seems to work in Russia’s favor, considering its capacity to withstand a long-term state of war.
In a scenario where Donald Trump wins the presidency in the U.S. elections, it seems possible that Europe might not be able to continue its military and financial aid to Ukraine independently and would have to “fend for itself” against Russia.
Rise of far-right in Europe
At this point, the importance of Türkiye, which has been evident since the war’s beginning, cannot be ignored by Europe. Türkiye is indispensable for Europe’s security architecture, whether for the will to support Ukraine militarily against Russia or for operating channels to reduce tensions with Russia. Both European security and Europe’s “strategic autonomy,” if achievable, can only be possible through a meaningful alliance approach where Türkiye is seen as an equal partner.
Despite this, the rise of the far right across Europe reinforces a scenario where Europe, already suffering from strategic blindness, will be dominated by even more myopic and anti-Türkiye sentiments. The 2024 European Parliament elections are critical in this respect. Proper functioning of Türkiye-Europe relations can only be possible by implementing a new strategic communication and cooperation model aligned with new geopolitical realities.
2024 will be a critical year in this regard. Europe will either turn toward an exclusionary policy, closing in on itself and trapped in Cold War logic, or transform into a real player in the global power race by establishing an equal and genuine relationship with Türkiye on a healthy basis.
The Middle East enjoyed a relatively stable year of normalization politics until Oct. 7. However, Oct. 7 was a strategic shock in terms of its effects. It proved that normalization is not achievable while ignoring regional problems. The post-Oct. 7 Israeli aggression and the loss of thousands of civilian lives created an even more unstable environment and hampered regional normalization efforts. Among the normalization processes occurring on many tracks, the Türkiye-Israel track has been negatively affected by the conflict. The process between Saudi Arabia and Iran seems destined to fail if Iran’s proxies are targeted by a U.S.-led regional coalition.
Israel’s unjust and unlawful aggression in Gaza should not be expected to have any negative impact on the ongoing normalization efforts between Türkiye and other Arab countries; on the contrary, it should lead to consolidation in this area. Israel’s expansion of the conflict beyond Gaza to Lebanon, Syria and Iraq will inevitably create an escalation with Iranian proxy forces. The possibility that increased instability and the risk of escalation could create an anti-Israel political bloc and prompt the United States to rethink its withdrawal from the Middle East. Houthi missile attacks in Bab al-Mandeb could lead to a direct confrontation with the U.S. and draw the U.S. into the conflict. The current situation is moving in a direction that would encourage Iran, through its proxies, to increase missile attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq.
Moreover, the unresolved issue of Iran’s nuclear program could lead to a race to become a nuclear power in the Middle East involving Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, a scenario that must be considered in the medium term. Especially in the event of Trump’s reelection as president of the U.S., Iran being cornered by pressure will provide an incentive for Iran to advance its nuclear activities. Therefore, a new confrontational and competitive strategic environment may emerge in the Middle East in 2024.
Growing uncertainties
In an increasingly global and regional uncertain environment, Türkiye is re-emerging as a new focal point and geopolitical center of gravity. In 2023, Türkiye pursued a regional foreign policy to normalize relations, especially with the Gulf states, and maintain its presence and influence in the global political arena.
In line with these dynamics, Türkiye’s foreign policy enters 2024, reflecting a challenging environment full of various crises and complexities. Turkish-American relations will be decisive in 2024 due to several unresolved issues ranging from terrorism to defense. It should also be noted that Türkiye-EU relations in 2024 may be affected by some positive developments, such as the rapprochement between Türkiye and Greece, but also by other dynamics, such as the rise of far-right ideologies in Europe and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Türkiye’s priority in Ukraine will be to stop the war as soon as possible and bring the parties together to reach a peaceful agreement.
In 2024, Türkiye will continue to institutionalize the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) further and make it a political and economic power. It will conduct effective diplomacy with all parties to build a sustainable order in the South Caucasus. As a global actor that will deepen its economic presence in Africa and institutionalize its global foreign policy portfolio, it will be a country that will continue to contribute more to global issues from a solution perspective. It will work for a political solution to the Syrian crisis without changing its security priorities in Syria. It will continue to actively use regional diplomacy to stop the war in Gaza and bring the two-state solution to Palestine firmly back to the table.
