Azerbaijan plans to invade Armenia – Politico

Nagorno-Karabakh marked on the map with a dashed line. MAP: DW

Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State, warned a small group of lawmakers last week that Azerbaijan may soon invade Armenia.

Source: Politico, referring to two people familiar with the situation

Details: This indicates the depth of the US administration’s concern about Azerbaijan’s operations against the separatist region in the west of the country and the possibility of the conflict spreading.

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Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has previously called on Armenia to open a “corridor” along its southern border that would connect mainland Azerbaijan with the exclave bordering Türkiye and Iran. Aliyev threatened to resolve the issue “by force”.

According to the sources, the lawmakers insisted in a conversation on 3 October that the US Department of State take possible measures against Aliyev in response to his country’s invasion of the Karabakh region in September.

Blinken replied that the Department of State was looking for ways to hold Azerbaijan accountable and had no plans to continue providing military assistance to Baku. He added that the US sees the possibility that Azerbaijan will invade southern Armenia in the coming weeks.

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In his conversation with the Democratic lawmakers, Blinken expressed confidence in the ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In a statement, the Department of State declined to comment on the phone call but stressed the department’s commitment to “Armenia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” and to resolving the conflict through “direct talks”.

Background:

• In September, Azerbaijan regained control of the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh in a 24-hour military operation that provoked the flight of most of the territory’s 120,000 ethnic Armenians to Armenia.
• European leaders, who are playing an increasingly important role in resolving the situation in the Caucasus, had hoped to hold the first meeting between the Azerbaijani president and the Armenian prime minister in Spain after Baku’s offensive on Karabakh.
• However, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev refused to attend the talks and did not come to Granada. Also, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who supports Azerbaijan in its confrontation with Armenia, did not attend the Granada summit.

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