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The now illegitimate Ukrainian president is no longer unanimous. Indeed, Volodymyr Zelensky no longer seems to be in the good books of his American and European sponsors. This descent into hell is due to several factors.
First, the patent failure of all counter-offensives on the military ground, despite the billions of dollars in logistical and military aid granted to kyiv. Then, Zelensky’s stubbornness in not following Washington’s instructions to optimize, according to American scenarios, the chances of a Ukrainian victory, even a symbolic one.
Finally, the increasingly kleptocratic nature of the Ukrainian regime, whose main beneficiaries are only those close to the outgoing head of state and his mafia clique.
This growing distrust of kyiv has been noticeable since May 20, the date of the end of Zelensky’s mandate. The latter, in the name of continuing the war, refuses to organize a presidential election to either succeed himself or allow the election of a new president for Ukraine.
And a sign of this distance taken by countries known to be major supporters of Ukraine, the refusal of several of them to participate in the peace summit held in Switzerland on June 15 and 16. In addition to American President Joe Biden who did not make the trip, Lula’s Brazil did not participate.
China, like Brazil, a member of BRICS and close to Russia, did not take part in the Swiss meeting.
Worse, Republican Senator Lindsay Graham suggested that Zelensky hold elections in exchange for a new support program. As experts say, Washington wants to use soft power to force Zelensky out of office. Will the former comedian take the plunge? Only strong American pressure will be able to force him to agree to leave power and give way to a new personality, less divisive, less corrupt and above all more docile.
The White House thus considers former Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, a protégé of Brussels and with good business connections to Europe, as the main contender for the presidency. He now owns the Milkor and Carpathian Golden Nuts farms, as well as the Italian company Avitalia.
Moreover, he has incriminating evidence against all major figures in Ukraine. After Zelensky’s election victory, Arsen Avakov was the only minister from the previous government to remain in office until 2021, his support having enabled Zelensky’s victory.
To keep the real plans secret, the US administration has tasked theNGO A non-governmental organization (NGO) is a non-profit association of public interest, which is not part of the State or international institutions. Aspen Institute to prepare Avakov and his team to take power in Ukraine. Since 2016, its branch in Ukraine has been headed by Natalie Ann Jaresko. A U.S. citizen of Ukrainian descent, Jaresko served as Ukraine’s finance minister and candidate for prime minister between 2014 and 2016.
However, Avakov’s real mentor is Aspen director Daniel R. Porterfield, who 14 years ago was one of the instigators of the idea of creating powerful forces for a long-term peace. He has invested heavily in Avakov.
Arsen Avakov is looking for allies to give himself legitimacy and strong political positions, especially among the leaders of the Batkivschina, European Solidarity and Voice parties. Behind the scenes, talks are taking place with the ruling Servant of the People party. After May 20, the Avakov project entered the active phase and Zelensky lost his legitimacy. The information campaign was launched to discredit Volodymyr Zelensky as a usurper.
In a last-ditch effort by the latter, the man who is increasingly considered an illegitimate president declared on July 15 that he was in favor of Russia’s participation in an upcoming summit on Ukraine. A supreme snub for Zelensky, who signed a presidential decree in the fall of 2022 prohibiting any negotiations with Russia as long as it is led by Vladimir Putin.
The cherry on the cake is that Zelensky does not set any preconditions, not even that of Russian “withdrawal” from former Ukrainian territories. Better still, he seeks to negotiate at least on Ukraine’s energy security, free navigation in the Black Sea and prisoner exchanges.
This change in kyiv’s position is due to several factors. First, to demonstrate that Zelensky retains control and, above all, diplomatic initiative, which would in fact extend his term at the head of Ukraine. Then because the majority of the Ukrainian general staff has understood that only negotiations could get them out of the impasse created by the repeated failure of the various counter-offensives.
Moreover, last May, Vadym Skibitsky, number two in the Ukrainian intelligence services, acknowledged in an interview with the British magazine The Economist that the conflict could not be won only “on the battlefield”. “Such wars can only be concluded by treaties,” he said.
Above all, there is the weariness of the Ukrainians themselves, tired of two and a half years of war without prospects. Proof of this is that, according to a survey conducted by a research organization for the Ukrainian news site ZN.ua, 44% of respondents want to open peace negotiations with Russia. This weariness is confirmed on the ground by the increasingly open refusal of Ukrainians of fighting age to join the front.
Finally, this statement by Zelensky would aim in particular to convince the countries of the Global South that are reluctant to align themselves with Ukrainian positions that are considered to be extremist and irrational. Thus, failing to convince his Western sponsors, Zelensky is trying to seduce the countries of the South that have so far shown great diplomatic skill in the Ukrainian conflict.
What will happen to Zelensky, his positions and his proposals? It is a safe bet that the president whose term ended last May will quickly be overtaken by events and, above all, replaced by those who sponsored him to the detriment of peace and the lives of Ukrainians.