Two reasons Ukrainians might experience up to 20 hours a day without power this winter – Politico

A hand with a burning candle next to a cartridge with an electric light bulb in a dark room. Stock photo: Getty Images

Ukrainians might experience up to 20 hours a day without power this winter if the winter is severe and Russia attacks Ukrainian nuclear power stations.

Source: Politico, citing energy experts

Details: Each winter of the war so far has been difficult for Ukraine, but the coming winter will arrive after months of Russian air strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

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In late August alone, Russia fired more than 200 missiles and drones at energy facilities, capping a campaign that has reduced Ukraine’s electricity generation capacity by more than 9 GW, according to Hennadii Riabtsev, a senior researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies and an energy market expert. Eight power plants and more than 800 heat supply facilities have been disabled as a result of the Russian attack.

Riabtsev said that “the most realistic scenario” facing the country this winter involves limiting “the supply of electricity to industry and households for eight to 14 hours a day.”

With severe cold snaps and new strikes on the nuclear power system, Ukraine could face blackouts of up to 20 hours a day, says Oleksandr Kharchenko, head of the Energy Research Centre and energy adviser to the Ukrainian government.

This means no heat in homes, shutdowns of war-critical factories and Ukrainians fleeing abroad for refuge.

“I’m very worried,” said Viktoriia Hryb, an independent Ukrainian lawmaker who heads the parliament’s energy security subcommittee. “The situation is really critical, and I hope that international partners […] will provide us with assistance as soon as possible.”

“It’s an assessment Ukraine’s allies share, as Kyiv appeals to them for rapid assistance,” Politico wrote.

“We’re anticipating a […] very harsh winter,” said one senior United States official on condition of anonymity. “People will die in their homes because Russia is taking out the energy infrastructure.”

Background: 

• A member of the advisory board of Tsentrenergo, an energy-producing company operating in central and eastern parts of Ukraine, has predicted that rolling blackouts will be introduced throughout Ukraine as early as this week, but Tsentrenergo retorted that this assessment is the member’s “personal opinion” that does not correspond to its plans.
• Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s electricity transmission system operator, said that as of 1 November, there were no grounds to introduce rolling blackouts for households in Ukraine.
• Ukrainians can get through the winter without scheduled power cuts if energy facilities can be protected from attacks.

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