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Some Turkish cities could face severe water shortages in the coming decades if climate change continues unchecked, a new study warns.
According to research conducted by scientists at Pusan University in South Korea, Adana and Mersin may experience “Day Zero Drought” by 2030, while Istanbul and Diyarbakır could face it by 2050. “Day Zero Drought” refers to the day when a city’s drinking water supply is depleted and taps run dry.
The study, published in Nature under the title “The First Emergence of Unprecedented Global Water Scarcity in the Anthropocene,” analyzed global water scarcity risks using models developed in the U.S. and France.
Researchers examined evaporation rates, river flows, dam storage levels and water scarcity indices to project when regions might face unprecedented shortages. The models also considered high- and medium-emission climate scenarios, showing that even areas with large dams are vulnerable.
Professor Christian Franzke, a climate scientist involved in the study, said efficient water use in Türkiye is more effective than constructing new dams, desalination plants or pipelines. He noted that drought conditions have been increasing in some regions since 2000, particularly in southern Türkiye, and stressed that urban planning, agriculture and industry must incorporate water-saving measures.
Water scarcity could have far-reaching effects on agriculture, food security, energy production and industrial operations. Sustainable irrigation is crucial to maintaining crop yields and water-dependent industries, including hydroelectric plants, could face operational disruptions and economic losses.
Prolonged drought may also degrade freshwater ecosystems, threaten biodiversity and increase the risk of waterborne diseases.
Dr. Tuğba Evrim Maden, policy development coordinator at the Türkiye Water Institute, warned that densely populated regions in semi-arid and arid climates are particularly vulnerable. She noted that if current trends continue, by 2050, nearly 5 billion people globally could face water stress, with Türkiye’s southern and central regions among the most at risk.
Experts emphasize that sustainable water management, climate-resilient agriculture and investment in efficient infrastructure are essential. Coordinated policies across national and local governments, combined with public awareness and regulation of water usage, could significantly reduce the likelihood of catastrophic water shortages in Türkiye.
