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The Director General of Forecasting and Policies at the Ministry of Finance, Sid Ahmed Louahadj, stressed that the ministry adopted, as part of the 2026 finance bill (PLF), a new macroeconomic forecasting model, developed in partnership with the World Bank, with a view to optimizing the reliability of forecasts and monitoring economic and financial changes.
Speaking before the Finance and Budget Commission of the National People’s Assembly (APN), as part of the examination of the 2026 PLF, he presented the main directions of the macroeconomic framework and budgetary forecasts for the period 2026-2028, according to a press release from the APN. The manager specified that the General Directorate of Forecasting and Policies adopted this new model to strengthen the reliability of forecasts and monitor economic and financial changes. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast (July 2025 update), the global economy is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2026, compared to 2.6% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2024, in a context of slowing inflation due to lower demand, lower energy prices and relative stability in oil prices, he noted.
At the national level, Mr. Louahadj affirmed that economic activity continued to improve in the first quarter of 2025, recording growth of 4.5%, driven by the performance of non-hydrocarbon sectors, whose growth rate reached 5.7%. The inflation rate fell to 3.25% at the end of June 2025, after having reached 4.06% in the same period of 2024, thanks to the fall in the prices of food products and a slight decrease in the prices of services.
For the macroeconomic and budgetary framework 2026-2028, Mr. Louahadj specified that a reference price per barrel of oil of 70 dollars was retained with a market price of 60 dollars, while forecasting a drop in the volume of hydrocarbon exports over the same period, offset by the improvement in the performance of the agriculture, construction, industry and services sectors, thus guaranteeing growth. balanced and supporting financial stability.
During the debates, the members of the committee raised several concerns, in particular on the concrete means of diversifying non-hydrocarbon exports, of translating the expected economic growth into jobs and sustainable wealth, as well as on the practical mechanisms for controlling inflation and preserving the purchasing power of citizens.