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The military and diplomatic developments between Afghanistan and Pakistan have increased the threat of rising tensions in South Asia. Earlier this month, Pakistan and the Taliban acted with consideration in Doha, offering an opportunity for regional stability brokered with the support of Qatar and Türkiye. However, the next phase of talks in Türkiye collapsed under the Istanbul process. Both countries blame each other for adjourning the dialogues.
Slinging allegations
From the beginning, Pakistan has claimed that to prevent cross-border infiltration and ensure regional stability, it undertook significant diplomatic and institutional initiatives after the withdrawal of the U.S. in 2021 to engage constructively with the Taliban.
The efforts include two official visits by Pakistan’s minister of defense and the director general of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), five visits by Pakistan’s special representative to Afghanistan, five visits conducted by the secretary-level delegations, one official visit by the national security advisor and eight sessions of the Joint Coordination Committee (JCC) between the two countries. Moreover, 225 flag meetings were held between border commanders, 836 formal protest notes were lodged through diplomatic channels, and 13 official demarches were delivered to the Afghan authorities. However, Pakistan accuses the Taliban of not honoring their commitments.
The mediation effort by China under the Trilateral Forum Meetings held in May 2025 also didn’t bear fruit, and the process was inconclusive, leading to the use of hard power by Pakistan inside Afghanistan in October 2025 to target Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) – an internationally recognized terrorist outfit – commanders taking refuge in Afghanistan.
The Taliban, on the other hand, have been sensitive regarding the airstrikes by Pakistan in Afghanistan’s territory, interpreting it as a severe breach of its sovereignty. They deny giving the TTP “free rein,” or argue that Pakistan is overplaying the threat for its own strategic aims.
The skirmishes between Afghanistan and Pakistan have strained relations in the recent past. Moreover, the decision of Pakistan to deport Afghans from Pakistan is also taken as a political move to pressure the Taliban regime while ignoring the humanitarian aspect and the longstanding cultural ties between the two nations.
Doha deal: Missed chance
The recent Doha Agreement was a positive development. Pakistan welcomed this initiative, and so did the Afghan public. There have been certain doubts among the security and political analysts in Pakistan about the Taliban upholding their commitment this time, since they breached their pacts in the past. Unfortunately, reports emerging from the latest Istanbul talks suggest that these concerns were justified, as the cease-fire now appears to have completely collapsed.
Basically, the dialogue process seems to be coming to an end due to different priorities and ideological lineages. The Taliban do not formally recognize the TTP; however, they share certain ideological affinities with the group and somehow depend on it for gaining domestic stability in Afghanistan. On the other hand, Pakistan, along with other regional countries, considers it a terrorist organization responsible for exporting terrorism in Pakistan for decades, and does not want to give concessions to the TTP anymore.
However, it is noteworthy to mention that the Doha deal was the first bilateral agreement between Afghanistan and Pakistan, after the original Doha accord of 2021 of the Taliban with the U.S., involving regional and international actors officially involved.
The presence of two important players in regional and global politics, Qatar and Türkiye, is a new dimension in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, and their presence would have been a guarantee of this agreement. The guarantors are reliable and have sufficient influence in both the Pakistan and Taliban leadership, which could materialize the dream of sustained peace into reality as their presence adds political weight and opens the door for constructive diplomacy. Furthermore, the agreement shared the responsibility of regional security among different stakeholders, including the Taliban.
It is a collective duty to dismantle the terrorist networks to bring peace to the region. This poses a challenge for the Taliban as their command is not fully recognized in the whole of Afghanistan, and often local commanders act on their own will. If there is to be another peace in the near future, this issue will have to be seriously addressed to ensure the upholding of the agreement. Joint intelligence mechanisms and cross-border support should be one factor that can minimize the risk of derailing future peace processes.
Another aspect of the recent agreement was the reinternationalization of the security situation of South Asia. In this context, the regional frameworks may also be invoked when and where necessary to voice the interference by any other player in the region. The understanding between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban could have narrowed the space for other proxy operations in Afghanistan, which have exploited the fragile border region between the two nations to undermine regional security.
It is worth mentioning that Pakistan never wanted hostility with the Taliban. It has hosted over 4 million Afghans for more than four decades and shares historical ties with its people. However, the recent conflict came as a direct result of the TTP’s continuous terrorist activities in Pakistan. In response to recent terrorist attacks, Pakistan took targeted military action, striking known terrorist hideouts in Afghanistan. This has reemphasized Pakistan’s commitment toward the Afghan people of not hitting the civilian areas and forwarding its anti-terrorism agenda while keeping in view the sensitivities of the Afghan nation.
Notes for the future
As a side note for future peace talks – hopefully more fruitful ones – the sensitivities of both states must be taken into consideration. Cross-border terrorist activities originating from Afghan soil must be stopped, and Pakistan should take humanitarian considerations into account when formulating its deportation strategy for Afghans.
The Istanbul Process diplomatic platform initiated by Türkiye has been a significant stakeholder in peace in Afghanistan since 2011. Türkiye has been continuously making efforts to play a constructive role in the region. The process must be reinitiated, and now is the right time for all stakeholders to contribute to the process and show seriousness to eradicate the menace of terrorism from the region.
It is not only Pakistan demanding the Taliban take concrete measures against banned outfits, but recently China, Iran and Russia have also jointly expressed deep concern over the presence of terrorist organizations operating from Afghanistan, including al-Qaida, the TTP, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and other similar groups. The statement was made after their fourth quadripartite meeting on Afghanistan, convened by Russia on the sidelines of the 80th United Nations General Assembly session in New York. The Taliban must remain cautious, develop a constructive approach and continue to safeguard their commitments at international forums, while Türkiye and Qatar’s continuous active engagement should also be ensured for sustained peace and oversight of the Doha agreement between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance, values or position of Daily Sabah. The newspaper provides space for diverse perspectives as part of its commitment to open and informed public discussion.
