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Expectations for consumer price inflation in Türkiye in 12 months time increased in November, a closely watched survey showed on Friday, signalling persistent price pressures despite tight monetary policy.
Inflation lastly eased to 32.87% annually and 2.55% monthly in October, both below expectations, according to official data. Price pressure in the previous two months was above expectations, prompting the central bank to slow its rate-cutting cycle.
Inflation is expected to stand at 23.49% in a year’s time, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s (CBRT) latest Market Participants Survey showed on Friday. That compared to 23.26% in the previous month’s poll.
Expectations for inflation over the span of two years also edged higher, increasing to 17.69% from 17.36%, the survey showed.
Year-end inflation is estimated to come in at 32.2%, compared with 31.77% in last month’s survey.
A week ago, the central bank raised its inflation forecast range for the end of this year to 31%-33% from 25%-29%. However, it kept its interim inflation target unchanged at 24%, outside that range.
The bank kept its interim target of 16% for end-2026, and CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan said it was ready to tighten policy if inflation diverges significantly from targets. The bank also left unchanged its 13%-19% forecast range for the end of next year.
The end-2027 interim target remained at 9%.
The CBRT slowed easing with a 100-basis-point cut in its policy rate to 39.5% at its latest policy-setting meeting on Oct. 23, flagging renewed inflation risks that pointed to a slowdown in the disinflation process.
At the previous meeting in September, it had already tapped the brakes with a 250-basis-point cut, having lowered the rate by 300 basis points in July as it resumed an easing cycle disrupted by market volatility due to domestic political developments earlier this year.
In April, the bank hiked its policy rate to 46% from 42.5%, reversing an easing cycle that had begun in December amid volatility over the arrest in March of former Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu. He was jailed pending trial over graft charges.
