ISW observes slight Russian advance in five areas

UKRAINIAN AMMUNITION. PHOTO: UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF

Russian forces have advanced near the settlements of Kupiansk (Kharkiv Oblast), Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Novomykhailivka (Donetsk Oblast) and Novoprokopivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Russian forces have made minor confirmed advances northeast of Kupiansk. Geolocation footage released on 18 December revealed that Russian troops had made slight advances north of the settlement of Synkivka (northeast of Kupiansk).

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Russian forces also confirmed advances north of Bakhmut. Geolocation footage released on 12 December indicates that the Russian army has advanced northwest of the village of Bilohorivka (Donetsk Oblast), 15 km northeast of Bakhmut.

The Russians confirmed the progress near Avdiivka. Geolocation footage released on 18 December revealed that Russian troops made minor gains north of the village of Pervomaiske (about 10 km southwest of Avdiivka) on or around 15 December. Further geolocation footage released on 19 December indicated that Russian forces had also made limited progress in the area of the quarry southwest of Avdiivka.

Russian troops made minor advances southwest of the city of Donetsk. A geolocation video posted on 19 December revealed that Russian forces had achieved limited progress along Tsentralna (Central) Street on the eastern outskirts of Novomykhailivka.

Map: ISW

Geolocation imagery released on 18 December indicated that the Russian contact line is further east of Novoprokopivka (directly south of the village of Robotyne) than assumed, although this advance is likely not the result of a Russian counterattack and is unlikely to have been made in the last 24 hours. Ukrainian forces may have moved to more defensible positions closer to Robotyne.

Russian and Ukrainian troops are engaged in positional fighting on the Dnipro River’s left (eastern) bank in Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian forces reportedly maintained their positions in the village of Krynky on the left bank, defeating Russian counterattacks in the area.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 19 December:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly invoking the Kremlin’s pre-invasion pseudo-historical rhetoric to cast himself as a modern Russian tsar and framing the invasion of Ukraine as a historically justified imperial reconquest.
• Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu stated during the Russian MoD Collegium on 19 December that the Russian MoD will prioritise continuing the war in Ukraine and training newly formed units and formations in 2024, while also reiterating threats against Finland and the wider NATO alliance.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave an end-of-the-year press conference on 19 December during which he commented on Russia’s continued unwillingness to negotiate, his confidence in future Western aid provisions, Ukrainian domestic weapons production, and possible future mobilisation in Ukraine.
• Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin discussed Russian and Chinese economic cooperation and bilateral relations with Chinese Premier Li Quang in Beijing on 19 December.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances northeast of Kupiansk, north of Bakhmut, and southwest of Avdiivka, and continued positional meeting engagements along the entire line of contact.
• Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that the Russian military intends to recruit up to 745,000 contract personnel by the end of 2024 at the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) Collegium on 19 December.
• Russian authorities continued attempts to use military conscription in occupied Ukraine to augment force generation efforts and legitimise Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea.

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