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While a fragile cease-fire has been achieved in Gaza after two years of genocide, there is also a growing new axis of instability in the region. It has become a daily occurrence to hear comments from Israeli, Greek Cypriot and Greek politicians about the importance of the island of Cyprus to Israeli security and the growing security ties between Israel, Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration against Türkiye.
Israel threatens the region not only through its actions in Gaza, but also through its aggressive policies in the Middle East. It is dragging the Eastern Mediterranean into a vortex of instability with its lawlessness and defiance of established rules. The attack on the Sumud flotilla and the delivery of the Barak MX air defense system to the Greek Cypriot administration were the latest manifestations of this dangerous policy.
However, Israel’s activities in the Eastern Mediterranean are not limited to such acts. Its deepening political and military relationship with the Greek Cypriots and Greece, in particular, poses a serious security threat to the region. The geopolitics of the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean are becoming increasingly intertwined, and Israel is determined to manage and direct these dynamics to its own benefit.
New geopolitics of EastMed
A key dynamic in the Eastern Mediterranean is the existence of an anti-Türkiye coalition. Just as Israel destabilizes the Middle East, it possesses the potential to generate persistent instability in the Eastern Mediterranean. The Greek Cypriot administration and Greece, emboldened by the support they receive from Israel, are taking more audacious steps, turning this potential into reality.
The maritime jurisdiction agreement signed between Türkiye and Libya was a strategic countermove that altered the regional balance of power. Thanks to this alliance, Türkiye has conducted active drilling and NAVTEX activities to protect its own continental shelf and the rights of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). While the balance on the Libyan front has gradually settled in Türkiye’s favor, Greece’s efforts to divide the Türkiye-friendly government have proved fruitless. Moreover, by recently establishing contact with actors in eastern Libya, Ankara has expanded its sphere of influence there as well, effectively counterbalancing the moves made by Athens.
The contest in the Eastern Mediterranean is not solely about energy resources; it is also directly linked to the sovereign rights of coastal nations and the spillover from crises in the Middle East. Within this framework, Egypt’s position is of critical importance. While previously aligned with the Israeli camp, Egypt has recently signaled a potential policy shift following its normalization process with Türkiye and the dialogue established between Tripoli and Haftar in Libya.
Post-civil war Syria also holds the potential to enter the Eastern Mediterranean equation in Türkiye’s favor. A possible new maritime agreement between Syria and Türkiye would place the Greek Cypriot-Greece duo, and by extension their backer Israel, in an even more challenging position.
Axis of instability
Since Oct. 7, the Greek Cypriot administration has not only served as a “safe harbor” for Israelis fleeing their country but has also elevated its security and intelligence ties with Israel to the highest level. Despite attempts to portray itself as a hub for humanitarian aid to Gaza, it has, in reality, functioned as a logistical center for Israel’s operations. The United States and the United Kingdom have used the military bases and ports on the island to deliver military aid to Israel, while aircraft and surveillance drones are operating to gather intelligence at sea and over Gaza to help Israel’s brutal military actions.
The rapid militarization of the Greek Cypriots following the lifting of the U.S. arms embargo is another factor escalating regional tensions. Of particular concern is the acquisition of the Barak MX air defense system from Israel, whose radar covers the entire Eastern Mediterranean and Türkiye’s southern coastline, raising the likelihood that this system could provide real-time intelligence to Israel. The TRNC and Türkiye have voiced their legitimate concerns over this armament and the increasing provocations on every available platform.
Just as an atmosphere of calm was beginning to form in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean following the de-escalation steps between Türkiye and Greece in 2023, the actions of the Greek Cypriot-Greece duo, encouraged by Israeli aggression, now threaten this fragile calm. Greece’s military exercises on islands that are legally demilitarized, coupled with a news report alleging that civilian vessels registered to Greece and the Greek Cypriots were used in the drone attack on the Sumud flotilla, suggest these two countries are direct accomplices in Israel’s aggression.
In sum, Türkiye has significantly strengthened its position in the Eastern Mediterranean equation through its normalization initiatives with Egypt and the UAE, alongside its strategic successes in Syria and Libya. In response, Greece and the Greek Cypriots, having previously failed in their regional ambitions, now aim to reignite a similar polarization with Israel’s backing. This creates a dangerous dynamic where the Greek Cypriot administration effectively acts as an Israeli proxy, threatening regional stability to serve Israeli interests.
However, under current conditions – where Israel’s diplomatic isolation is growing, Greece is grappling with chronic economic problems, and Türkiye is expanding its sphere of influence through regional achievements – it is evident that Israel’s policy of destabilization is destined to fail eventually. Until then, this axis of instability will continue to terrorize and destabilize the Eastern Mediterranean, just like the instabilities Israel creates in the Middle East.
