ISW analyses consequences of Ukrainian strikes on ammunition depots in Russia

Explosions in Tikhoretsk, Russia. Photo: Screenshot

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Ukrainian strikes on targets in Russia could affect offensive operations throughout the entire war zone in Ukraine.

Source: ISW

Details: Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Shahed UAV storage facility in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai and an ammunition depot in the Republic of Adygea [a federal subject of the Russian Federation] on 9 and 10 October.

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Quote: “Russian forces rely on Shahed drones to strike both frontline and rear Ukrainian settlements and cities and expend roughly 10,000 artillery shells per day against frontline Ukrainian positions.”

Details: The ISW recalls that Ukrainian troops struck the Oktyabrsky and Toropets ammunition depots in Tver Oblast and the city of Tikhoretsk in Krasnodar Krai in September 2024. On 8 October, they also hit a missile and ammunition depot in the settlement of Karachev, Bryansk Oblast, leading to the destruction of numerous storage buildings, railway wagons and potentially a considerable amount of ammunition, missiles and drones.

Quote: “While the impact of a single strike is unlikely to significantly impact Russia’s war effort, repeated strikes against ammunition depots within Russia may force a decision point on the Russian military command to reorganise and disperse support and logistics systems within Russia’s rear areas to mitigate the impact of such strikes at the expense of mass-optimised Russian logistics to support the war in Ukraine.”

Details: Analysts reiterate that lifting restrictions on the use of Western-provided weapons, combined with further development of Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities, would allow Ukrainian forces to better exploit Russian weaknesses before countermeasures can be put in place.

Quote: “Ukrainian strikes against facilities within Russia could impact offensive operations throughout the theatre in Ukraine if Ukrainian forces have the materiel, capabilities, and permission to conduct such a strike campaign against logistics and support facilities within Russia at scale.”

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 10 October:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Shahed drone storage facility in Krasnodar Krai and an ammunition warehouse in the Republic of Adygea on 9 and 10 October.
• Russian forces have reportedly struck three civilian vessels docked in Ukrainian ports since 5 October, likely as part of intensified Russian military, political, and economic pressure to undermine confidence in Ukraine’s grain corridor, Western support for Ukraine, and push Ukraine into premature negotiations.
• An unspecified senior US defence official stated on 9 October that Russian forces have suffered over 600,000 casualties since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 – a stark increase from a prior US intelligence assessment that Russian forces suffered about 315,000 casualties in Ukraine as of December 2023.
• An Iranian outlet affiliated with former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Mohsen Rezaei claimed on 8 October that Russia provided Iran with an S-400 air defence system and a squadron of Su-35 fighter jets but provided no evidence for this claim.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, southeast of Pokrovsk, and southwest of the city of Donetsk.
• The Russian military appears to be increasingly recruiting older Russian volunteers in order to sustain ongoing crypto-mobilisation efforts. 

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