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The New Popular Front created a surprise and came out on top in the second round of the French legislative elections which took place this Sunday, while the RN came in third place behind the presidential camp.
None of the main political blocs obtains an absolute majority in the National Assembly. The question of the future government remains unresolved after the second round.
Organized in a hurry, the Republican Front blocked the National Rally and its allies, at the end of the second round of the legislative elections, Sunday July 7. Against all expectations, the New Popular Front came out on top by a small margin, with a range of between 177 and 192 deputies in the new chamber, according to our Ipsos-Talan estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24, RFI and LCP.
The turnout for this second round was 67.1%, according to our estimate, a level slightly higher than that of the first round, and not seen since 1997.
For the left-wing coalition formed in the aftermath of the dissolution, this is a clear step forward compared to the contingent of 150 deputies sent to the National Assembly by Nupes after the 2022 legislative elections. Following this election, the internal balances within the left-wing bloc are modified. La France insoumise (LFI), which formed a group of 75 deputies in the outgoing Assembly, obtained 73 to 80 seats.
The Socialist Party, for its part, goes from a group of 31 elected representatives to a range of between 60 and 64 seats. The Ecologists will have 33 to 36 seats, compared to 21 until now. Finally, the French Communist Party would send 11 to 12 elected representatives to the Palais-Bourbon. Excluding the NFP, 14 diverse left-wing candidates are elected in the second round, according to the Ipsos-Talan estimate.
Qualified in 441 constituencies for the second round, the National Rally and its allies seemed able to seize a majority in the National Assembly for the first time in the Fifth Republic. But after the many withdrawals that occurred between the two rounds, Marine Le Pen’s party
Le Pen and Jordan Bardella lose their bet. According to our estimate, he obtains between 138 and 145 elected representatives at the end of the second round. However, he improves his score compared to 2022, when he sent 89 deputies to the Assembly.
The party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella alone will win 124 to 128 seats. Allied with the extreme right, the contested president of the Republicans, Eric Ciotti, and his supporters will have 14 to 17 deputies.
Behind the left-wing coalition, but ahead of the RN and its allies, the presidential bloc united under the banner Ensemble is losing the relative majority it held from 2022 to 2024. Which suggests that President Macron’s camp should opt for an alliance.