le zugzwang pour l’UE – Le Jeune Indépendant

Zugzwang is a situation in the game of chess in which the player has no possible favorable move – any action he makes will result in imminent deterioration of his position on the game board.

In the framework of the current unofficial negotiations of the peace agreement between Ukraine and the Russian Federation or, to be more precise, between the NATO bloc and Moscow, the question of the number of the contingent of the Ukrainian army of the post-war period is presented as one of the key points of disagreement between the Russians and the Ukrainians, with the European “war-mongers” behind.

Without presenting an analysis of all the clauses of a possible peace agreement, I will focus on the quantitative question of the future Ukrainian army, whose importance, singularly underestimated, transcends the propagandist narratives of the major Western media.

The dominant narrative contrasts Moscow’s desire to minimize the number of soldiers in the Ukrainian army with the position of the Ukrainian-European camp, reluctant to any reduction in numbers.

The peace plan proposed by the Trump administration calls for a reduction of the Ukrainian army to 600,000 active troops, while the European Union’s demands hover around 800,000 individuals.

That being said, it should be emphasized that the focus on the security aspect of this issue turns out to be not only fallacious, but also disconnected from the socio-economic imperatives of the reality that Ukraine will experience in the near future. The equation is considerably more complex.

Army personnel

Today, the exact number of soldiers and officers serving in the Ukrainian army remains undetermined. Estimates, from official and unofficial sources, suggest a range of 800 to 950 thousand individuals, including a significant number of deserters, estimated between 200 and 300 thousand according to various Ukrainian sources (the official figure of more than 120,000 legal proceedings brought against soldiers who deserted the ranks of the Ukrainian army hardly reflects the real scale of the exodus).

As a result, the actual strength of the Ukrainian army is estimated to be between 500 and 750 thousand people, of which approximately 200 thousand are directly engaged in fighting on the front line.

What is the significance of these figures presented?

The fact that these numbers fit well within the “bargaining zone” proposed by Washington, suggesting an absence of demand for sacrifices in terms of the numbers of the future Ukrainian army, constitutes an aspect not illuminated by the Western mainstream media, but, nevertheless, secondary to the problem.

It is relevant to recall that before Russia’s entry into the war, the entire Ukrainian armed forces numbered about 200 thousand soldiers and officers. This figure already took into account the war waged by kyiv in the Donbass region since April 2014.

At the same time, the largest armies of the European Union countries in terms of active personnel, such as those of France and Poland, also have nearly 200 thousand soldiers each. This relatively small size is explained by the fact that in times of peace, larger armies for countries with the demographic and economic weight of France would constitute an excessive economic burden. A hypothetical increase in French military personnel from 200 to 300 thousand would be highly detrimental to an economy already on the verge of recession.

Ukraine, faced with a proven economic and demographic collapse, will not be able to finance an army of 800,000 men, nor even maintain a workforce of 200,000 active soldiers as before 2022. At the end of the conflict, the country will be plunged into a deep and lasting recession.

Whether they like it or not, even once the current conflict is over, European taxpayers will inevitably have to continue to finance kyiv through massive grants, amounting to several tens of billions of euros per year and thus placing a lasting burden on the public finances of European countries.

The Ukrainian trap: zugzwang

The narratives conveyed by the NATO bloc’s propaganda channels regarding the future and crucial role of the Ukrainian army in the defense of the European Union diverge considerably from reality. Contrary to public assertions, no European government, however Russophobic it may be, will consent to substantial sacrifices for the benefit of a foreign army, whose function is limited to constituting a temporary bulwark against the Russian army, a strategic “consumable” during the few years necessary to strengthen the national armed forces.

At the end of this process, it is certainly expected that the Ukrainian army, already chronically undernourished even in times of war, will be gradually abandoned to its own fate, lacking an annual allocation of several tens of billions of euros, essential to maintaining the level of capacity displayed in official declarations.

That being said, the future reputational drama of European capitals lies in the fact that, without relegating Ukraine to the status of a pariah state and without hermetically closing its border with the EU, the interruption of the aforementioned financial infusions will prove unfeasibleeven in the event of a massive accession to power, in the countries of the Union, of sovereignist governments, even openly anti-Ukrainian.

For what ?

Currently, the remuneration of a rank-and-file soldier directly engaged in combat zones frequently exceeds 100,000 hryvnias, or nearly 2,000 euros per month. For several years, more than 200,000 individuals, out of a total number estimated between 500,000 and 750,000 active soldiers within the Ukrainian army, have not only become familiar with the direct confrontation with death and the act of killing, but also accustomed to receiving remuneration which, for the majority of them, represents a multiple of 5 compared to their civilian income prior to the conflict.

As an indication, the average income of the Ukrainian population in 2021 amounted to 14,018 hryvnias per month, or approximately 434 euros gross (Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, 2021).

At the end of the armed conflict, hundreds of thousands of combatants will return to a disenchanted civilian life, faced with an economy in ruins and the arduous quest for precarious employment, paid at best a few hundred euros per month.

The polls already carried out in Ukraine are unequivocal and have no surprise effect: at least, several tens of thousands of people accustomed to killing, and with their psyches destroyed by the war, will take the path to the European Union in order to find the level of remuneration to which they have become accustomed since years of war, and this by all the means at their disposal.

European capitals will then be faced with a very limited choice: either maintain substantial and lasting funding for the Ukrainian army and economy, or welcome on their soil tens of thousands of unbalanced individuals with experience of killing, in search of a comfortable standard of living, or, as mentioned above, put Ukraine under the status of a pariah state and close its border to free movement with the EU.

Considering the policies pursued in recent years by Brussels and the majority of European governments, and considering the risks inherent for the “elites” in the second option, maintaining substantial funding for kyiv appears to be the lesser evil.

However, the indignation displayed by European decision-makers at the Trump administration’s proposal to reduce the strength of the Ukrainian army to 600,000 men at the end of the conflict is a crude chimera whose real objective would be to prevent the signing of a peace agreement and to prolong the war for the time necessary for the European Union to restructure its armies at the cost of socio-economic sacrifices that its taxpayers will make willingly or by force.

Oleg Nesterenk is also a former director of the MBA, a former professor at the masters of the Grandes Ecoles de Commerce de Paris.