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Türkiye has recorded 448,000 earthquakes in the 26 years since the devastating Aug. 17, 1999, Marmara earthquake, according to disaster management specialist Bülent Özmen, who warns the country remains vulnerable to a powerful tremor that could severely affect Istanbul.
Özmen, an associate professor in Gazi University’s Civil Engineering Department, told Anadolu Agency (AA) that on average, Türkiye experiences a magnitude-7 or stronger earthquake every 6.5 years. “We are also exposed to earthquakes greater than magnitude 6 twice a year,” he said.
The Marmara quake, which struck in 1999, killed more than 17,000 people and remains one of the deadliest disasters in modern Turkish history. Since then, nearly 77,000 people have died in earthquakes nationwide, Özmen said, with economic losses approaching $200 billion.
Özmen noted that earthquake activity has surged in recent years, with 2023 recording about 74,000 tremors, the highest annual figure on record. A total of 46 earthquakes measuring between 6.0 and 6.9 have struck Türkiye since 1999.
He said several fault lines beneath the Sea of Marmara, including parts of the North Anatolian Fault, have not produced a magnitude-7 quake since 1766. These “seismic gaps,” he warned, remain a source of serious concern.
Istanbul at risk
Istanbul, a city of more than 15 million people, has felt smaller quakes in recent years, a magnitude 5.8 in 2019 and a magnitude 6.1 earlier this year. But Özmen said these events did little to ease pressure on the fault system.
“An earthquake of magnitude greater than 7 would have a very serious impact on Istanbul,” he said. “The fault line running through the Gulf of Gemlik, south of the Marmara Sea, has not produced a major earthquake for a long time. A potential rupture there would affect the entire Marmara coast.”
Preparedness still lacking
Özmen acknowledged that Türkiye has taken legal, technical and judicial steps to strengthen disaster readiness over the past 26 years. Still, he said, the death toll and destruction from recent quakes show that measures remain insufficient.
He urged officials to accelerate urban transformation projects, particularly in high-risk areas, to reduce casualties in future disasters.
Balıkesir still under threat
Addressing last month’s 6.1-magnitude earthquake in Sındırgı, Balıkesir, Özmen cautioned against assuming the danger has passed. Aftershocks could reach magnitudes of 5.1 or 5.2, he said, and with nearly 20 active faults in the region, seismic risk remains high.
“The idea that this earthquake won’t happen again is incorrect,” he said. “Balıkesir, like many other provinces in Türkiye, carries a high earthquake risk. The North Anatolian Fault, which threatens Istanbul, is separate from the Sındırgı fault, so Istanbul’s risk is unchanged.”
