Over 70% of Ukrainians hope Ukraine will join EU and NATO by 2030 – chart

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Over 70% of Ukrainians expect Ukraine to become a member of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation by 2030.

Source: a poll conducted by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) as part of the National Democratic Institute (NDI) study

Details: The respondents were asked whether they would like Ukraine to become a member of the EU and NATO by 2030, and whether they expect this to happen. 

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A total of 90% said they would like Ukraine to join the European Union by 2030, and 77% expect this to happen.

Infographic: National Democratic Institute

The desire to join the EU has remained almost unchanged – it was 90% in May 2022 and 92% in 2023. However, the gap between the desire and expectation that this will happen has grown significantly in the 2024 survey.

By 2030, 84% of respondents would like Ukraine to become a member of NATO, which is less than in 2023 (89%), but more than in 2022 (73%). However, 71% expect this to happen (65% in 2022 and 85% in 2023).

The majority of respondents (41%) believe that Ukraine will need 2-5 years to join the EU, while 29% think it will take more than five years. 

A total of 24% of respondents expect a “lightning-fast” accession in a year or two or less, which indicates an increase in realistic perceptions compared to previous years. More than 50% of respondents held this opinion in 2022, and more than 40% did in 2023. 

Infographic: National Democratic Institute

Regarding NATO membership, the largest share of respondents (41%) believe that accession in 2-5 years is realistic, another 29% believe that it is possible in more than 5 years, while 29% believe in rapid accession in less than 2 years.  

Infographic: National Democratic Institute

The survey was conducted on 8-25 May 2024 among 2,508 respondents, some of whom have remained in occupied territory since the outbreak of the full-scale war. Percentage values in the survey are rounded, so questions may have a total of 98-102% (not exactly 100%).

Background:

• The NATO Washington Summit Declaration states that Ukraine’s path to full membership is irreversible.
• At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has acknowledged that Ukraine will not be invited to join NATO until after the war.

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