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Scared coward: Putin’s fear to mobilize is justified, as a russian mobilization would ultimately work in Ukraine’s favor in the long term.
Following Putin’s mobilization in the fall of 2022, which was unsuccessful, many russians felt betrayed in their social contract with him and a considerable number fled the country. Consequently, Putin is scared to mobilize again.
russia is facing increasing difficulty in recruitment. While it does manage to recruit a significant number of men, the need to cover losses has led to a substantial increase in signing bonuses in order to attract enough recruits.
Putin could address this issue by mobilizing, especially given the ease of explanation with the Kursk incursion. However, doing so would once again violate the social contract and further damage russia’s overheating economy.
Through mobilization, Putin would indirectly acknowledge that he should have mobilized earlier, as the new mobilization would be associated with the urgency of the situation and the humiliation in the Kursk region.
russia is not compelled to mobilize in the sense that it has sufficient troops to halt the ongoing incursion. However, if the incursion escalates, it will require the deployment of increasing numbers of troops from other areas of the front.
The russian economy is already experiencing overheating due to a severe shortage of labor, and a mobilization would further expedite the process of economic harm. Additionally, it would fuel greater resentment among russians about the war.
russian mobilization would compel Ukraine to increase its current level of mobilization, provide a strong justification for Zelensky to do so, and spur Ukraine’s allies to ramp up their assistance.
The war will only end when the average russian, who is typically imperialistic, grows weary of it and acknowledges its unwinnable nature. While propaganda is effective and will prolong this process, mobilization would expedite it in several ways.
The compounding economic challenges, rising war costs, mounting casualties, and growing public resentment towards the war and government would expedite the timeline for the war to culminate in a russian defeat.
@Ukraine_Report ~ 4rrasoe 🇮🇩❤️🇺🇦🔱
Putin doubles signing bonuses for volunteers to fight in Ukraine
All Russians who sign a contract with the army will now receive an upfront payment of $4,651. The decree also recommends that regional authorities match this payment with at least the same amount.