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Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan joined his counterparts from the Arab and Muslim world on Sunday for an emergency meeting in the wake of Israel’s unprecedented strike targeting Hamas members.
The strike on a meeting of Hamas officials in Qatar has cast a cloud of growing concern across Turkey that it could be the next target.
Turkish Defense Ministry spokesperson Rear Adm. Zeki Aktürk warned in Ankara on Thursday that Israel would “further expand its reckless attacks, as it did in Qatar and drag the entire region, including its own country, into disaster.”
Israel and Türkiye were once strong regional partners, but ties between the countries ran into difficulties from the late 2000s and have reached an all-time low over the war in Gaza. Tensions have also risen as the two countries have competed for influence in neighboring Syria since the fall of Bashar Assad’s Baathist regime last year.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been a long-standing supporter of the Palestinian cause and resistance movement Hamas. Erdoğan has criticized Israel, and particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with strident rhetoric since the start of the Gaza war, accusing Israel of genocide and likening Netanyahu to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler.
Hamas officials regularly visit Türkiye and some have taken up residence there. Erdoğan is also close to Qatar’s leaders and Türkiye maintains strong military and commercial ties to the emirate. Erdoğan is due to travel to Qatar on Monday for an Arab and Muslim leaders’ summit, preceded by a meeting of top diplomats.
After Israel’s attacks on the territory of Iran, Syria, Yemen and now Qatar, Ankara is bound to be concerned by Israel’s ability to use the airspace of neighboring states freely.
“Israel’s ability to conduct strikes with seeming impunity, often bypassing regional air defenses and international norms, sets a precedent that deeply worries Ankara,” said Serhat Süha Çubukçuoğlu, director of Trends Research and Advisory’s Turkey program.
Türkiye sees these attacks as a “broader Israeli strategy to establish a fragmented buffer zone of weak or pacified states around it,” he added.
In crossing a previously unthinkable line by attacking Qatar, a close American ally that has been serving as a mediator in Gaza cease-fire talks, Israel has also raised the question of how far it will go in pursuing Hamas targets.
Through its NATO membership, Türkiye would seem to have a greater degree of protection against Israeli attack than that afforded to Qatar by its close ties to the United States.
Türkiye also boasts significantly greater military might than the Gulf state, with its armed forces second in size only to the U.S. among NATO countries and an advanced defense industry.
As tensions rise, Türkiye has boosted its defenses. During Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June, Erdoğan announced an increase in missile production. Last month, he formally inaugurated Türkiye’s “Steel Dome” integrated air defense system, while projects such as the KAAN fifth-generation fighter have been fast-tracked.
Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, said an Israeli airstrike on the territory of a NATO member would be “extremely unlikely.” Still, small-scale bomb or gun attacks on potential Hamas targets in Türkiye by Israeli agents could be a distinct possibility.
Çubukçuoğlu, meanwhile, said the Qatar attack could harden Ankara’s support for Hamas. “This resonates with Turkish anxieties that Israel may eventually extend such operations to Turkish territory,” he said. “The Turkish government calculates that abandoning Hamas now would weaken its regional influence, while standing firm bolsters its role as a defender of Palestinian causes against Israeli aggression.”
While attention is focused on tensions surrounding the war in Gaza and Türkiye’s relations with Hamas, Ünlühisarcıklı warned the greater danger may be in Syria, where he described Israel and Türkiye as being “on a collision course.”
“To think that targeting Turkish troops or Turkish allies or proxies in Syria would be to go too far is wishful thinking,” he said.
Since the ouster of the Baathist regime in December, rising tensions between Türkiye and Israel have played out there. Ankara has supported the new interim government and sought to expand its influence, including in the military sphere.
Israel views the new government with suspicion. It has seized a U.N.-patrolled buffer zone in southern Syria, launched hundreds of airstrikes on Syrian military facilities and positioned itself as the protector of the Druze religious minority.
Tensions also could spill into the wider eastern Mediterranean, with Israel potentially drawing closer to Greece and Greek Cypriots to challenge Türkiye’s military presence in Northern Cyprus.
Türkiye appears to be pursuing a mixture of military deterrence and diplomacy in Syria aimed at defusing tensions to avoid a direct conflict with Israel.
Turkish and Israeli officials held talks in April to establish a “de-escalation mechanism” in Syria. The move followed Israeli strikes on a Syrian air base that Türkiye had been purportedly planning to use. Netanyahu said at the time that Turkish bases in Syria would be a “danger to Israel.”
Ankara and Damascus signed an agreement last month for Türkiye to provide military training and advice to Syria’s armed forces.
Erdoğan may also hope Washington would take a hard line against any Israeli military incursions.
While Netanyahu has sought support from U.S. President Donald Trump in the faceoff with Türkiye, Trump instead lavished praise on Erdoğan for “taking over Syria” and urged Netanyahu to be “reasonable” in his dealings with Türkiye.
