UK Defence Intelligence comments on Ukrainian capabilities and Russian defence after explosions in Tatarstan in early April

UK Defence Intelligence believes that Ukraine’s strike on the Shahed UAV production facility in Tatarstan proves Ukraine’s ability to carry out such strikes, and that Russia is concerned about it.

Source: the UK MOD’s review of the Russian-Ukrainian war of 16 April, European Pravda reports

Details: The intelligence service shared its thoughts on the episode from 2 April, when the facility in Tatarstan was hit. It is located about 800 miles (over 1,000 km) from the border with Ukraine.

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“The facility has been operating since July 2023 and is known to construct Iranian SHAHED style drones which Russia utilise to launch attacks against Ukraine. The regional head of Tatarstan subsequently said in a statement that ‘no one will protect us but ourselves’,” the review recalls. 

The intelligence notes that this case confirms Ukraine’s ability to strike deep in the Russian rear, bypass the air defence system and find objects associated with the Russian military machine. 

“The comments from the head of the Tatarstan region highly likely demonstrate a fear around such attacks. It is likely that Russian MOD are struggling to protect such facilities and are likely content to balance the risk to sites staffed by civilians in favour of maintaining their focus on the frontline where Ukrainian UAV tactics, and frequency of attacks, continue to cause problems for Russian forces,” the review notes.

Background:

• In a review on 15 April, UK Defence Intelligence reported that Russia is trying to recruit foreigners into its army to avoid domestic mobilisation.
• The reviews also drew attention to new laws in Russia, apparently aimed at reducing discontent in the families of its military.

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