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Russia may be preparing to launch a false-flag operation in the republic of Transnistria to undermine the Ukrainian economy, according to a US-based think tank.
The Institute for the Study of War said Moscow-aligned officials in the region, which broke away from Moldova in 1990, have been attempting to destabilise Moldova with statements similar to those made before it intervened militarily in 1992.
They may use false accusations of Moldovan hostility as a pretext to “retaliate” to protect Russian-speakers in Transnistria, with knock-on effects on Ukrainian grade trading, the ISW said.
Ukraine has successfully developed a Black Sea shipping corridor despite Russian naval attacks, but volatility in Transnistria may be seen by the Kremlin as a way to “deter countries from participating” in it, said ISW analysts.
They pointed to several recent events in the region.
On Tuesday, Kremlin newswire TASS published an interview with Transnistrian president Vadim Krasnoselsky claiming Moldova’s “militarisation” threatened Transnistria.
The next day, the Russian foreign ministry summoned Moldova’s ambassador to Russia for the country’s “politically motivated persecution of Russian and Russian-language media” and “discrimination against Russian citizens entering Moldova”.
The ministry threatened that if those alleged actions continue, Russia “reserves the right to take additional retaliatory measures”, and went on to accuse Moldova of planning to allow NATO to train Ukrainian troops on its territory and become “involved” in the war.
Kremlin officials have also intensified references to “compatriots abroad” and the “Russian World”, which are “concepts that Russia often uses to justify its right to defend ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers beyond its borders”, said the ISW.
Russia has maintained a presence in Transnistria since 1992.