The current situation is very strange. If Iran agrees to abide by this ‘indefinite’ extension of the ceasefire, we will enter a state of ‘no peace, no war’ — and nobody knows how long.

The U.S. naval blockade on Iran would remain, and so would Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is a lose-lose situation.

Iran and the U.S. would both suffer economic consequences if this situation continues. But who would suffer worse, is the question.

Three main options are possible:

1. Iran decides that the U.S. naval blockade is an existential matter, and starts to take retaliatory measures. This would likely collapse the ceasefire. Alternatively, the U.S. may carry out another surprise attack.

2. Iran and the U.S. do reach some sort of understanding, maybe informally. Iran may allow a limited number of ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for an ‘easing’ of the U.S. naval blockade.

3. Iran and the U.S. agree to hold another round of negotiations. But this is unlikely, considering neither side is willing to make concessions.

@Middle_East_Spectator