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— 🇮🇷 Iran’s last official Presidential poll ahead of Friday’s election
Jalili leads with 22.5%, followed by Ghalibaf at 19.5% and Pezeshkian at 19.4%, and the others below 3%.
The election will almost certainly go to a second round, because no candidate will get more than 50% of the votes in the first round.
At this point, with Jalili (Hardline) seemingly in first place, the race is on between Ghalibaf (Populist) and Pezeshkian (Reformist):
If Ghalibaf (Populist) gets second place in the first round, the second round will be between Ghalibaf and Jalili (Hardline). This would be a showdown between Iran’s moderately conservative populist flank and the hardline conservative religious flank. While the two have similarities and are both conservatives, Ghalibaf also appeals to middle class non-conservative Iranians, who see him as an experienced ‘manager’ who built Tehran into a powerhouse during his term as a competent mayor. Jalili’s voterbase consists mostly of hardline revolutionary Iranians and the religious masses, as well as university educated youths and people from rural areas.
If Pezeshkian places second instead of Ghalibaf, the second round would will be between Pezeshkian (Reformist) and Jalili (Hardline). This would be a showdown between Iran’s liberal reformist flank and the hardline religious flank. In this event, Jalili will likely take almost all the votes of those who voted Ghalibaf in the previous round, because both are part of the wider conservative flank despite their differences. On the other hand, Pezeshkian could draw in large amounts of previous non-voters, mostly anti-IR Iranians, who will feel emboldened if a Reformist reaches the second round.